Don’t buy these ridiculous numbers

A new NBC/WSJ poll has Biden up a whopping 14 points.

I tried reading the data but the page says “this website is under heavy load (queue full),” so I’ll take Raheem Kassam at his word for now:

Wow! How did this happen? I’ll explain:

The poll sampled 35% DEM, 27% REP, 38% IND. So a DEM+8 vs REP.

The last poll sampled DEM+3.

So they changed the weighting by 5 points and now report “OMG BIDEN IS UP ANOTHER 6 POINTS FROM THE LAST POLL!”

It’s a fraudulent industry. https://t.co/cbfc0cYK88

— Raheem Kassam (@RaheemKassam) October 4, 2020

It has been lost in the shuffle of my Twitter feed, but someone also posted a screenshot of the NBC/WSJ poll showing Hillary Clinton up 14 points in October 2016. This leads to my periodic reminder to never put too much stock into one poll. General trends are significantly better indicators of how the race might shake out.

I do have a hunch, though, that polls like these are specifically constructed and covered in order to demoralize Trump supporters and rally the Biden base.